Market update · 14/09/2026 · 6 min read

Precious Metals Weekly: Hot Inflation Brings a Fed Hike Closer

Market review for the week of 7–11 September 2026.

Gold started the week on the front foot but finished it in the red. On Tuesday and Wednesday, fresh attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and oil above $100 lent it support. Then US producer and consumer price data made a Federal Reserve rate hike look close to a done deal. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, went ahead and raised rates itself. Gold traded between $4,292 and $4,443 and was down roughly 1.65% for the week by Friday evening.

The week’s key stories

• Hormuz escalation pushed oil above $100. The US military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after Iranian attacks on US warships, and Tehran retaliated against US targets in Jordan. Brent rose to $100.72 and WTI to $95.25 a barrel. On Wednesday morning gold was up 1.11% at $4,403.10 and silver up 0.68% at $66.08. But the 10-year US Treasury yield also climbed to 4.81%, its highest since October 2023. That captures the week’s central tension: geopolitics supports gold, while pricier oil lifts rate expectations, which weigh on it. Kitco, 09.09.2026
• The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points. The deposit facility rate rises to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective 16 September. The ECB cited price pressure from the Middle East conflict, saying inflation is set to stay well above target for an extended period. Its new staff baseline sees inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with growth of 0.9% this year and 1.4% next. The ECB stressed that it is not pre-committing to any particular rate path. ECB, 10.09.2026
• Producer prices cooled gold’s rally. US producer prices rose 0.4% in August, in line with expectations. The annual rate, however, came in at 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast. Core PPI rose 0.2% on the month and 4.6% on the year. Gold lost 1.39% on Thursday, falling to $4,340.78. Economist Jeffrey Roach warned that “China is no longer exporting deflation” and that a 0.4/0.2 monthly print shows inflation running hot. Kitco, 10.09.2026
• Consumer prices cemented the case for a Fed hike. US CPI rose 0.4% in August (0.1% in July) and 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%. Gasoline jumped 3.9% on the month and accounted for more than a third of the overall increase. Markets priced an 87% chance of a September hike, up from 72% a day earlier. The Fed funds target range currently stands at 3.50–3.75%. After an initial whipsaw, gold closed Friday up 0.73% at $4,347.10 and silver up 1.28% at $64.26. The 10-year yield briefly touched 4.99%, while the 30-year rose above 5.42%, a 19-year high. Kitco/Reuters, 11.09.2026 · Kitco, 11.09.2026
• US consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations jumped. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in September (51.7 in August, forecast 51). One-year inflation expectations rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, and long-term expectations to 3.4%. Survey director Joanne Hsu said sentiment is now 16% below February, before the Iran conflict began. Gold traded near its session high after the release. Kitco, 11.09.2026
• China’s central bank made its biggest gold purchase since 2023. The People’s Bank of China added 20.2 tonnes to its reserves in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and the 22nd consecutive month of buying. Official holdings now stand at roughly 2,387 tonnes, with about 80 tonnes added so far this year. The value of the gold reserves rose from $306.35 billion to $350.08 billion over the month. In other words, the central bank is still buying at high prices. Kitco, 08.09.2026
• Gold ETFs saw near-record inflows in August, with Europe setting a record. According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs took in $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record. Holdings rose by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes, and assets under management grew 16% to $615 billion. European-listed funds attracted $7.9 billion, the region’s strongest month ever, including $4.4 billion into UK funds and a record $1.5 billion into French funds. North American funds took in $7.7 billion and Asian funds $2 billion. The WGC said European investors saw the summer correction as an opportunity to rebuild strategic positions. World Gold Council, 09.09.2026
• The weekly tally and analyst sentiment. Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,422.50, set its weekly high of $4,442.98 on Tuesday and its low of $4,292.11 on Friday, ending the week around $4,349. In Kitco’s weekly survey, 64% of 14 Wall Street analysts were bullish, 14% bearish and 21% neutral; among 218 retail investors, 53% expected higher prices. Bannockburn’s Marc Chandler said gold may trade higher into the Fed meeting, towards the $4,460–4,510 area. investingLive’s Adam Button noted that a Fed hike puts a downward bias on gold, but that if the Fed doesn’t sound hawkish enough, gold could quickly rebound. These are the views of market participants, not firm forecasts. Kitco, 11.09.2026

This week’s price: what it means for investors in Estonia

On the Estonian retail market on the morning of 14 September, popular one-ounce gold coins were mostly priced at €3,870–3,975. For example, the Austrian Philharmonic gold coin was around €3,915 and the Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin around €3,973. One-ounce coins from earlier years were available for €3,874–3,896. A 100 g Valcambi gold bar cost €12,425 and a 1 kg bar €123,765. A one-ounce silver coin cost €76–79 for recent mintages and roughly €67–72 for earlier years.

Three observations. First, the retail price of a one-ounce gold coin fell by about 1% over the week (the Philharmonic from €3,954 to €3,915), while the dollar price fell by roughly 1.65%. For a euro-based investor, the price depends on both the spot price and the EUR/USD exchange rate, so it can diverge from the dollar quote in either direction.

Second, rates are now rising on both sides of the Atlantic, and gold itself pays no interest. That is why this week’s data mattered more for gold than any single headline. Yet the ECB itself projects inflation of 3.0% this year, above the new 2.50% deposit rate. That gap is worth watching, because the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate matters more for gold than the nominal one.

Third, in August record sums flowed into European ETFs while China’s central bank bought physical metal. These are two different ways to own gold: an ETF gives price exposure in a securities account, whereas physical metal is in your hands and carries no counterparty risk. Private investors face the same choice. An Argor-Heraeus gold bar or a one-ounce coin qualifies as investment gold and is VAT-exempt. A one-ounce silver coin, by contrast, carries 24% VAT in Estonia, so silver has to rise further from the purchase price before an investor breaks even.

What to watch this week

The week’s main event is the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September. According to Kitco, markets put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at around 90%. With the hike largely priced in, what the Fed signals about its next steps may matter more for gold. The ECB’s new rates also take effect on 16 September, and on 17 September the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan announce their rate decisions. Oil prices and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remain key background factors.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team