Market update · 07/09/2026 · 6 min read

Precious Metals Week: Payrolls Erase the Waller Rally

Market review for the week of 31 August – 4 September 2026.

Gold went there and back. On Monday, rising bond yields and a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed the price to a two-week low; on Wednesday a softer tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller lifted it almost two percent in a single session; and Friday’s strong jobs report took the gain straight back. Gold ended the week essentially where it started — but it travelled between $4,282 and $4,511 to get there.

The week’s main stories

• The week opened with a rates shock, not a safe-haven bid. Monday saw gold fall 1.72% to $4,370.80 and silver 2.73% to $64.60 — this despite the U.S. having struck Iranian rocket launchers on an island near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and the UAE shooting down an Iranian drone over its waters on Monday. Oil stayed elevated (WTI $87.67, Brent $92.00 a barrel), pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79%, its highest since January 2025. Higher yields and a firmer dollar simply outweighed geopolitical risk for a non-yielding asset. Kitco, 01.09.2026
• Waller changed the mood on Wednesday with one sentence. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would “be inclined to keep rates unchanged if next week’s inflation data continue to cool.” Odds of a September hike dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, the dollar weakened, and gold rose 1.92% to $4,471.10 with silver up 2.49% to $66.83. The 2-year yield sat at 4.34%, the 10-year at 4.77%. Kitco, 03.09.2026
• Friday’s payrolls came in well above expectations. The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000, and unemployment held at 4.1% — the mirror image of the previous week’s revision, which had subtracted 79,000 jobs. September hike odds climbed back to the 60–65% zone and the 2-year yield hit 4.37%, its highest since January 2025. Gold lost 0.96% on the day to $4,429.40, silver 1.21% to $66.04. Kitco, 04.09.2026
• The weekly tally: flat on the surface, a $230 swing underneath. Gold opened at $4,439.15, traded down to $4,282.61 and up to $4,511.08, and closed at $4,432.33 — a 0.36% loss. Kitco’s weekly survey of 16 analysts split almost evenly (38% bullish, 31% bearish, 31% neutral), while 55% of 220 retail voters were bullish. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn warned that a break below $4,280 would open the door to the $4,200 area; Adam Button of investingLive summed the market up as playing a single game — “figuring out the Warsh Fed.” CPM Group advised standing aside and expects a $4,320–$4,670 range through 16 September. Kitco, 04.09.2026
• Central banks bought a net 23 tonnes of gold in July. According to fresh World Gold Council data, China led with 20 tonnes (a 21st consecutive month of buying; reserves now 2,366t, around 8% of the total) followed by Poland with 8 tonnes (90t so far this year, reserves of 640t against a 700t target). The Czech Republic added 2 tonnes, with Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Bolivia each adding one. On the sell side, Russia parted with 6 tonnes (−50t year to date, reserves of 2,277t). Year-to-date purchases total roughly 130 tonnes, against roughly 160 tonnes over the same period last year. One detail stands out: after a 13-year absence, the Bank of Korea put about $250 million — some 2 tonnes — into gold, and did it through gold ETFs rather than buying physical metal. Kitco, 03.09.2026
• Investment demand recovered; the retail buyer did not. A Heraeus review shows gold ETF holdings bottomed at 96.2 million ounces on 20 July and had recovered to 98.9 million by 27 August (+2.8%); silver ETFs moved from a 14 July low of 780.8 million ounces to 801.2 million (+2.6%), still 7.2% below where they started the year. Over the same stretch, physical bar and coin sales fell 36% in the second quarter versus the first. In other words, the summer rally was carried by funds, not by people standing at the counter. Kitco, 31.08.2026
• Miners had an extraordinary August. South Africa’s precious metals mining index gained 38% in August — its strongest month since the series began in 2006. Gold ETFs took in $7.3 billion in the week ended 26 August, the most since October 2025. On the risk side sit supply-chain problems: illegal gold exports from Peru reached $11.5 billion in 2025, up 55% year on year, and Ghana is weighing a transfer of Gold Fields’ mining leases to local parties when the current agreements expire in April. Kitco, 31.08.2026
• Forecasts: RBC sees $5,000 within reach, the WGC flags a technical setback. Christopher Louney of RBC Capital Markets wrote that geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarization and concern over dollar debasement are bringing gold back into a $4,500–5,000 range; the bank’s high-case year-end figure is $4,929, and $5,296 for 2027. The World Gold Council’s technical read is more cautious near term: daily momentum has topped out and a build-up of long positions leaves scope for a deeper setback, with the 55-day average at $4,215 expected to act as a floor and the 200-day average at $4,530 as resistance. These are two market views, not certainties. Kitco, 02.09.2026 · Kitco, 01.09.2026

This week’s price: what it means for an Estonian investor

On the Estonian retail market on the morning of 7 September, one-ounce gold coins sat between roughly €3,910 and €4,010 — the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic around €3,954 and the 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf around €4,013, with earlier mint years available near €3,920. A one-ounce silver coin ran about €67.50 for older years and €77.50–80.60 for newer ones. A kilo gold bar cost €125,006, a 100-gram bar €12,549.

Three observations. First, a week that closed just 0.36% lower in dollars still meant a more visible drop per ounce at the Estonian counter — because for a euro-based buyer the price is the product of two moving parts, spot and EUR/USD. Watch only the dollar quote and you will be surprised regularly, in both directions.

Second, the takeaway from this week is the rhythm, not the level. Three large moves in three days, all revolving around one question: will the Fed hike in September? Anyone trying to front-run a week like that is really trading macro data, not gold. Buying a fixed amount at regular intervals makes such weeks irrelevant; the only place a wide swing genuinely matters is position size.

Third, the July central bank data contains a practical hint for private buyers. South Korea returned to the gold market through an ETF, while China and Poland add physical metal to reserves. Two different objectives: one seeks price exposure, the other an asset that depends on no counterparty. A private investor faces the same choice — and it decides whether the sensible purchase is a one-ounce gold coin you can hold in your hand, or a smaller 1/10 oz Philharmonic that buys divisibility at a higher price per gram. Silver in Estonia carries 24% VAT, which is why one-ounce silver coins need a larger price move from the moment of purchase before they break even — investment gold is VAT-exempt.

What to watch this week

The two big events come at the end. Thursday brings the European Central Bank’s rate decision along with U.S. producer prices and existing home sales for August. Friday brings the August consumer price index together with the preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. CPI is a direct test of Waller’s sentence: his softer tone was conditional — “if inflation continues to cool.” If it doesn’t, the 16 September decision is wide open again, and Friday’s strong labour market number will have found its match.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team