Market news · 20 July 2026 · Goldman & Sons editorial team

Last week wore two faces for precious metals: cooler US inflation briefly gave gold a lift, but resilient economic data and high bond yields pushed the price back down. In the background, central banks keep adding to their gold reserves, while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep oil and the broader risk mood elevated. Below are the week’s key stories — each with a linked source.

The week’s key stories

  • Cooler inflation lifted gold above $4,080 — then it slipped back below $4,000. US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June (the largest monthly drop since April 2020) and annual inflation slowed to 3.5% (from 4.2%), with core inflation easing to 2.6%. On 14 July spot gold climbed to about $4,089 (+2.2%) and silver to about $59 (+2.8%) as traders abandoned bets on a near-term Fed rate hike. (Kitco, 14 July 2026)
  • Strong data and high yields turned gold back. On 16 July gold slid below $4,000 (about $3,975, −2%) after retail sales rose 0.2% and jobless claims fell to 208,000 — a sign the economy has not weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.57%, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at its 28–29 July meeting (about 90%), but the odds of a September hike rose. (Kitco, 16 July 2026)
  • Central banks keep buying: China added 15 tonnes in June. China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for a 20th straight month, its largest purchase of the year. Year to date, the biggest buyers are Poland (64 t), Uzbekistan (41 t) and China (over 40 t). This structural demand supports the price over the long run, regardless of short-term swings. (Kitco, 7 July 2026), (World Gold Council)
  • Gold ETFs saw $8.9 billion of outflows in June. According to the World Gold Council, North America led the outflows (−$5.5bn), posting its weakest first half since 2013. Even so, the full half-year stayed net positive (+$8bn) and Asia recorded its strongest half on record (+$12bn); global ETF assets stood at $526bn. Western ETF appetite cooled on expectations of higher Fed rates, while demand in the East stayed firm. (World Gold Council, ETF flows)
  • Hormuz tensions keep oil and yields high. The US reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and oil stayed elevated — Brent near $85.78 and WTI near $80.19 (15 July). For gold this cuts both ways: geopolitical risk supports safe-haven demand, but higher oil and yields cap the upside. (Kitco, 13 July 2026)

The X corner: Peter Schiff

On 12 July Peter Schiff wrote on X that traders are being “conditioned to believe that war is now bearish for gold,” after the metal fell despite escalating US–Iran tensions. This is one market participant’s opinion, not a forecast to bank on — we present it neutrally, as background. (Benzinga, 12 July 2026)

This week’s price: what it means for the Estonian investor

On our price list, 1 oz gold coins currently cost roughly €3,670–3,725 and a 1 oz silver coin about €70. The dollar price’s swing around $4,000 feeds through to the euro price more gently, because the euro–dollar exchange rate smooths out part of the move — for an Estonian investor, that means less short-term noise than the US headlines suggest.

In practice the picture stays the same: physical gold and silver are a long-term way to preserve value, not a short-term trading instrument. If you’re weighing an entry point, watch your own time horizon rather than a single week’s move. Popular choices include the 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin and the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic gold coin; on the silver side, the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic silver coin, which — against a softer silver backdrop — offers a smaller-ticket entry point.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team