Last week was a jittery one across the precious metals market. Gold slipped below an important technical support level in dollar terms after a surprisingly strong US jobs report pushed market expectations away from rate cuts and toward a possible rate hike. At the same time, fresh data showed central banks are still adding to their gold holdings — and doing so precisely on the dips. Below are the week’s key headlines with their sources, and at the end, what it all means for the Estonian investor.
This week’s top stories
🏦 Central banks returned to net buying in April. According to statistics published by the World Gold Council on 3 June, central banks bought a net 19 tonnes of gold in April. The biggest buyer was once again Poland (14 tonnes, 45 tonnes year-to-date), while China added 8 tonnes — its largest monthly amount since December 2024 and an 18th consecutive month of buying. The Czech central bank bought 3 tonnes, its 38th consecutive month of purchases. Steady central bank demand is one of gold’s long-term pillars of support. Source: World Gold Council
📉 A strong jobs report turned Fed expectations on their head. The US economy added 172,000 new jobs in May, against expectations of only around 85,000; April’s figure was also revised upward to 179,000. The robust labour market dampened hopes of swift rate cuts and pushed gold lower — the price could not hold above $4,500 an ounce and traded around $4,441 on 5 June. According to CME FedWatch, the market now puts the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December at over 50%. Source: Kitco
🏦 Banks cut their price forecasts. On 3 June, TD Securities lowered its gold forecast for the second half of 2026: to $4,550 for the third quarter (–3%) and $4,700 for the fourth quarter (–10%) an ounce. The reasoning came down to the same labour-market and inflation picture: analyst Bart Melek noted that higher inflation expectations have lifted bond yields, kept the dollar strong, and led the market to price in a Fed rate hike by year-end. Source: Kitco
📊 The technical picture: gold broke below its 200-day average. On Friday, 5 June, gold finally broke below its 200-day moving average — an important long-term support — falling to roughly $4,327 an ounce, with $4,000 named as the near-term target. Silver dropped below $70, to about $68.28. Even so, analysts were in no rush to call a bear market: Phillip Streible described the decline as “buyable,” and lower prices were expected to draw additional central bank purchases into the market. Source: Kitco
🌍 Geopolitics: ceasefire hopes eased inflation fears. On Thursday, 4 June, gold rose about $40, back above $4,507 an ounce, after an Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement raised hopes of a broader de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict that has rattled energy markets since March. The easing of tensions softened the dollar and eased inflation worries. It is a good illustration of how two-sided geopolitics can be for gold: conflict supports safe-haven demand, but higher oil and a stronger dollar work against the price at the same time. Source: Kitco
This week’s price and what it means for the Estonian investor
According to the Goldman & Sons terminal price list (as of 8 June 2026), a 1 oz gold coin costs roughly €3,900–3,930 — for example the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic gold coin, the 1 oz British Britannia gold coin or the 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin. A 1 oz silver coin, such as the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic silver coin, sits at around €83–86.
It’s worth noting that although gold fell over the week in dollar terms, the price stayed relatively stable for a euro-based investor — a stronger dollar cushioned the decline in euros. That’s a useful reminder that, measured in euros, the price of gold depends on both the spot price and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Short-term swings are normal for precious metals; the long-term picture is shaped more by central bank demand, real interest rates and inflation. The current market backdrop — lower prices alongside continued central bank buying — is a good example of that dynamic. The chart at the top of the article shows the movement of the gold price (spot, EUR) over the past 30 days.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.
Goldman & Sons editorial team
