It was a jittery week for precious metals. Gold swung around $4,100 an ounce as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a firm dollar kept prices under pressure, while flaring tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offered a fleeting safe-haven bid. Below are the week’s key developments and what they mean for the Estonian investor.

The week’s main events

  • Fed minutes reinforced the “higher-for-longer” stance. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting showed policymakers still fixated on stubborn inflation, and the market repriced rate expectations toward a higher path. That pushed gold down to $4,074.70 on 8 July (−0.73%) and silver to $58.13 (−2.85%); the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.58%, which dents the appeal of a non-yielding asset like gold. Kitco, 8 July 2026.
  • Hormuz tensions lifted oil and gave gold a safe-haven nudge. The U.S. accused Iran of striking three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and announced fresh strikes; crude jumped sharply (WTI +6.45% to $74.93, Brent +6.18% to $78.73). Geopolitical risk usually supports gold, but this time the rally was capped by simultaneously rising bond yields and a stronger dollar. Kitco, 8 July 2026.
  • HSBC trimmed its gold price forecast. The bank lowered its 2026 average forecast from $4,864 to $4,560 and its 2027 figure from $5,000 to $4,925, citing a more hawkish U.S. monetary tone and a stronger dollar. Gold was trading around $4,100 at the time of the note — more than 20% below the 29 January record of $5,594.82. Kitco, 9 July 2026.
  • Money flowed out of gold ETFs in June. According to the World Gold Council, 74.3 tonnes of gold (nearly $9 billion) left gold ETFs in June; North American funds lost $5.5 billion, making it the weakest first half since 2013. Global holdings slipped to 4,121 tonnes. The main driver was the price pullback and expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Kitco, 8 July 2026.
  • A modest bounce closed the week. On 9 July gold rebounded above $4,100, even as the Fed minutes and Hormuz risk kept bond yields elevated. The week’s picture stayed two-way: macro pressure to the downside, geopolitics to the upside. Kitco, 9 July 2026.

Sentiment check

From the watchlist: in a commentary published on 8 July, Peter Schiff warned that investors are being misled by the Fed’s rhetoric, arguing that “inflation is a choice” the central bank will ultimately make. Schiff remains bullish on metals — though his lofty price targets are his personal view, not a forecast to be taken as fact. Benzinga, 8 July 2026.

This week’s price and what it means for the Estonian investor

Dollar-side weakness in gold feeds through to the Estonian counter price too, even if the euro–dollar rate softens the move. In our price list a 1 oz gold coin currently costs roughly €3,720–3,780: for example a 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic gold coin at ~€3,725, a 1 oz British Britannia gold coin at ~€3,718, and a 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin at ~€3,780. Silver has been choppier than gold — a 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic silver coin costs us about €73.

In practice, a week like this means the short-term price hinges mainly on the Fed’s tone and geopolitics, so direction is hard to predict. For a buyer of physical metal, the long-term view and the premium at the moment of purchase matter more than a single day’s swing. If you are weighing a purchase, it pays to watch the spot price and spread your buying over time rather than trying to catch “the bottom.”

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team