Market update · 21/09/2026 · 4 min read

Precious Metals Weekly: The Fed Hiked, Gold Held Firm

Market review for the week of 14–18 September 2026.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and made clear it may not be done. Gold dipped and looked shaky at first, but by Friday it was trading back near the week’s high. According to Kitco, gold opened the week at $4,340, hit its low on Wednesday ($4,261.80) and its high on Friday ($4,400.60). It finished around $4,377, up roughly 0.5% — its first weekly gain after three straight losing weeks.

The week’s key stories

• The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, with more on the table. On 16 September the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously (12–0) to raise the policy rate to a 3.75–4.00% range. The projections mattered more than the move itself: 16 of the 18 responding policymakers now see one more quarter-point hike this year, up from just six in June. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed at his press conference that inflation must come back to the 2% target. Gold fell about 1% in response, while the dollar posted its biggest one-day gain since June. Kitco, 16 Sep 2026 · Kitco, 16 Sep 2026
• The Bank of England held at 3.75% — but three members wanted a hike. At the meeting ending 16 September, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate unchanged, with three members backing a rise to 4%. The Bank said the Middle East conflict has pushed up crude and refined fuel prices; UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August and is likely to climb further. Priced in sterling, gold gained 1.58% on the day of the decision. Bank of England, 17 Sep 2026 · Kitco, 17 Sep 2026
• Oil eased while the 10-year yield returned to 5%. On Friday WTI fell 1.58% to $100.30 a barrel and Brent 0.93% to $104.87. Cheaper oil eased fears of sticky inflation and gave gold some support. On the other side, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 5.00% and the 2-year to 4.744%, its highest intraday level since July 2024. Futures put the odds of an October hike at 58%. Gold ended Friday up 0.85% at $4,382.38 and silver up 1.58% at $66.13. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin prices. Kitco, 18 Sep 2026
• Why gold didn’t crack under the hike. Higher rates usually weigh on gold, since the metal pays no interest. This time the price held above $4,300. Kitco’s analysis points to public finances: US debt exceeds $40 trillion and interest costs run above $1 trillion a year, so higher rates make the fiscal problem harder, not easier. Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said gold “appears to have shrugged off the US rate hike”. Tastylive analyst Chris Vecchio called 25 basis points here or there “noise”, arguing the bigger signals are fiscal. Kitco, 18 Sep 2026 · Kitco, 18 Sep 2026
• Analysts turned unanimously bullish. In Kitco’s weekly survey, all 16 Wall Street analysts expected gold to rise in the coming week. Among 220 retail investors, 58% expected gains, 24% losses and 19% a sideways market. Surveys capture sentiment, not direction: that kind of consensus can flip quickly if the data surprises. Kitco, 18 Sep 2026

This week’s price and what it means for investors in Estonia

On the morning of Monday, 21 September, the Estonian retail price for a one-ounce gold bullion coin was roughly €3,920–3,965 (for example Krugerrand €3,923, Philharmonic €3,965, Britannia €3,957). A one-ounce silver coin (Philharmonic, Kangaroo) cost around €79.

Three observations. First, the retail price of a one-ounce Philharmonic rose about 1.3% over the week (from €3,915 to €3,965), while the dollar quote gained only about 0.5%. The gap is mostly currency: a stronger dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for a euro-based buyer even when the spot price itself barely moves.

Second, the lesson of the week is that a rate hike does not automatically mean a lower gold price. What matters is whether hikes outpace inflation — that is, whether real (inflation-adjusted) rates are actually rising — and how the market views the sustainability of government debt. That is why it pays not to draw quick conclusions from any single central-bank decision.

Third, the tax gap still applies to buyers of physical metal. Investment gold, such as the Philharmonic gold coin or the Maple Leaf, is VAT-exempt in Estonia. A one-ounce silver coin or a kilo silver bar carries 24% VAT, so silver has to rise further from the purchase price before an investor breaks even.

What to watch this week

According to Kitco’s calendar, Wednesday brings the September flash purchasing managers’ indices (S&P Global Flash PMI). On Thursday the Swiss National Bank announces its rate decision and US jobless claims are released. Friday brings US durable goods orders for August and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. In the background: the oil price, US Treasury yields sitting around 5%, and how the market prices the odds of an October Fed hike.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team