Market update · 31/08/2026 · 5 min read

Precious Metals Week: Warsh Ends Gold’s Five-Week Run

Market review for the week of 24–28 August 2026.

The week began strongly for gold and ended with a sharp reversal. On Monday and Tuesday, a softer dollar and mounting concern over the US debt load pushed gold to a 15-week high. Then on Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium delivered an unambiguous message to markets: inflation is still the main worry. Gold’s five-week winning streak ended in a single session.

The week’s key stories

• Warsh’s speech snapped gold’s five-week run. On 28 August at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed’s job is “to deliver stable prices” and that persistent inflation remains the dominant risk. The odds of a September rate hike jumped from 35.9% to 57.5% on the CME FedWatch tool, the two-year Treasury yield rose 11.8 basis points to 4.348%, and the dollar index gained 0.5%. Gold fell 3.14% to $4,456.00 and silver dropped 4.24% to $66.21. Kitco, 28 Aug 2026
• The weekly tally: −3.36%, yet August still finished well ahead. Gold closed the week at $4,454.99, down 3.36%, after trading between $4,445.45 and $4,697.66. Despite Friday’s slide, the metal ended August roughly 10% higher. Kitco’s survey found Wall Street cautious — 48% of analysts bullish against 29% bearish — while 59% of retail traders stayed bullish. Kitco, 28 Aug 2026
• Payroll revisions erased 79,000 jobs. Also released on Friday, the US annual benchmark revision cut employment for the 12 months to March 2026 by 79,000 (and by 178,000 in the private sector). A weaker labour market would normally support gold, but Warsh’s message won the day: bullion traded at $4,543.80 in the morning before the speech drove it lower still. That contradiction — a cooling jobs market alongside a hawkish central bank — is the central tension in the gold market right now. Kitco, 28 Aug 2026
• July PCE inflation stayed above target. Wednesday’s reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annual rise, with core at 0.2% and 3.3% respectively. Slightly hotter than expected, it kept a September hike firmly on the table even before Jackson Hole. Gold traded at $4,633.50 and silver at $68.72 after the release. Kitco, 26 Aug 2026
• Early in the week, the “debasement trade” and $40 trillion of debt did the driving. On Monday gold sat close to $4,700 — its highest in 15 weeks — a move analysts tied to US government debt passing $40 trillion and to the Treasury’s long-dated bond buyback programme. TD Securities’ Bart Melek called his own $5,350 target premature for now, while MKS PAMP’s Nicky Shiels described gold as the “cleanest debasement hedge” but cautioned that prices may have overshot tactically. The 30-year yield stood at 5.23% and the 10-year at 4.70%. Kitco, 24 Aug 2026
• Silver supply was disrupted in three countries at once — and it barely mattered. A Kitco analysis lists three simultaneous interruptions: a community road blockade shut Endeavour Silver’s Terronera mine in Mexico from 12 to 23 August (roughly 0.08 million ounces), Peru’s silver output fell 9.0% in June, and Antofagasta cut guidance at Los Pelambres in Chile. Together that is about 1.1 million ounces — just 2.3% of the 46.3-million-ounce deficit forecast for 2026. The reason is structural: roughly 75% of the world’s silver comes from mines where silver is a by-product, so a high price does not summon new supply. Kitco, 28 Aug 2026
• Strait of Hormuz talks continue, but the blockage persists. Qatar’s prime minister travelled to Iran to restart negotiations, and Iran and Oman are working on a framework for managing the strait after nearly six months of conflict that has left the route effectively closed to normal Gulf energy exports. Shipping has improved only marginally. For gold the situation cuts both ways: constrained supply routes underpin safe-haven demand, while any oil-driven inflation impulse argues for higher rates. Gold traded at $4,588.50 and silver at $67.95 on Thursday. Kitco, 27 Aug 2026
• Comment: Lawrence Lepard on the arithmetic of debt. In an interview with Kitco, investor Lawrence Lepard described a fiscal “doom loop”: higher rates raise interest costs, larger interest costs widen deficits, governments issue more debt, and the extra supply pushes borrowing costs higher still. Faced with a choice between “print or crash”, he expects policymakers to pick the former. This is one market participant’s view rather than a forecast — but it explains why the debt theme has stayed on the gold market’s agenda all year. Kitco, 27 Aug 2026

This week’s prices: what they mean for a euro-based investor

On the Estonian retail market on the morning of 31 August, one-ounce gold coins were changing hands at roughly €4,030–4,045 — the 1 oz Austrian Philharmonic gold coin at about €4,045 and the Britannia around €4,037. A one-ounce silver coin from earlier mint years sat near €68.50, with newer strikes above €78. A one-kilogram gold bar was a little over €127,800, and a 100-gram bar about €12,800.

Three practical observations. First, for a euro investor the price does not move on the dollar quote alone: Friday’s 0.5% strengthening in the dollar cushioned the fall measured in euros. A 3% drop in the dollar price does not automatically mean a coin is 3% cheaper in Tallinn. Second, if a $4,445–4,700 range inside a single week feels uncomfortably wide, that is a signal your position size may exceed your tolerance — not that your timing was wrong. Buying a fixed amount at regular intervals smooths weeks like this one without requiring you to anticipate Fed speeches.

Third, the premium matters more than a few dollars on the spot price. Smaller pieces such as the 1/4 oz Philharmonic cost more per gram but offer divisibility, while larger units like a 100 g gold bar carry the lowest premium per gram. Silver in Estonia attracts 24% VAT, which means one-ounce silver coins need a larger price move before breaking even — investment gold, by contrast, is VAT-exempt.

What to watch this week

US labour data dominates the calendar: the ISM manufacturing index and JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday, and the August employment report on Friday. Markets are bracing for a fourth consecutive month below expectations. If that materialises, Warsh’s hawkish message and the reality of the labour market will be in direct conflict — and the September rate decision opens right back up.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.

Goldman & Sons editorial team