{"id":3911,"date":"2026-10-26T09:16:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T07:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-week-gold-below-4000\/"},"modified":"2026-10-26T09:16:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T07:16:26","slug":"precious-metals-week-gold-below-4000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-week-gold-below-4000\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Week: Gold Slips Below $4,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review for the week of 19\u201323 October 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Four numbers sum up the week: 4,000, 117, 9 and 74. Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since July, Brent crude climbed above $117 a barrel, futures markets put the odds of a rate hike at Wednesday&#8217;s Fed meeting at 9%, and the gold-to-silver ratio rose to 74. Those four things are linked: costlier oil lifts inflation expectations, higher inflation expectations keep rates elevated, and a higher real rate is a headwind for an asset that pays no interest. Over the week the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold-price\/\">gold price<\/a> fell 4.1% in dollar terms and silver dropped from $56.85 to $53.90 \u2014 a second consecutive losing week for both.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s main stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Gold ended the week at $3,995.81 and revisited July&#8217;s lows.<\/strong> By Friday evening spot gold was down 0.71% on the day and 4.12% on the week, with a weekly low of $3,975.10. Earlier, at 09:36 GMT, gold traded at $4,026.15 after an intraday low of $3,986.50 \u2014 its weakest level since 20 July. Two losing weeks in a row deserve attention, but it is worth keeping the scale in view: the $4,200 ceiling gold hit two weeks ago and this week&#8217;s $3,975 low are roughly 5% apart. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-23\/gold-silver-extend-weekly-losses-hormuz-tensions-push-crude-above-116-kitco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco PM Report, 23 Oct 2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/off-the-wire\/2026-10-23\/gold-three-month-lows-oil-rally-fans-inflation-worries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 23 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Tension in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil to a four-year high \u2014 and that worked against gold, not for it.<\/strong> Attacks on shipping in the strait continued, making October the most intense month since the conflict began, and fears of US and Israeli strikes on Iran pushed Brent above $117 a barrel and WTI above $103. Middle East escalation normally supports gold. This time a different channel dominated: dearer energy raises inflation expectations, which keeps a restrictive Fed on the table. Capital Economics&#8217; Hamad Hussain put it concisely \u2014 rising oil prices could keep real interest rates higher for longer, which makes holding gold less attractive. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-23\/gold-silver-extend-weekly-losses-hormuz-tensions-push-crude-above-116-kitco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco PM Report, 23 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Thursday was the worst day of the week \u2014 gold \u20132.88%, silver \u20135.90% \u2014 and it happened while bond yields were falling.<\/strong> On 22 October gold dropped $119.10 to $4,021.20 and silver fell $3.41 to $54.44. Treasury yields were sliding at the same time as tech stocks sold off, which in normal conditions would support gold. Kitco attributes the disconnect to position closing and liquidation pressure: when a portfolio needs to raise cash, even assets with no fundamental reason to fall get sold. Silver had the added weight of industrial demand worries. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-22\/precious-metals-tumble-despite-falling-yields-hormuz-tensions-intensify\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco PM Report, 22 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The week ahead belongs to central banks: the Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday, with Canada and Japan also deciding.<\/strong> CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool showed markets pricing a 9% chance of a hike at the 27\u201328 October meeting, but 81% for December \u2014 a pause now, a hike later. Thursday brings the ECB decision alongside the advance US third-quarter GDP estimate and PCE inflation. Kitco&#8217;s weekly survey showed analyst pessimism: of 17 respondents, four were bullish (24%), seven bearish (41%) and six expected sideways trading (35%). Retail investors took the opposite view \u2014 42% of 161 votes were bullish. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-23\/wall-street-doubts-golds-near-term-strength-main-street-maintains-bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 23 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Metals Focus forecasts silver&#8217;s physical deficit flipping to a surplus in 2027.<\/strong> The consultancy sees the silver market moving from this year&#8217;s 35.4-million-ounce deficit to a 37.3-million-ounce surplus in 2027. The cause lies in the price itself: high prices push industrial users, solar panel manufacturers in particular, to substitute and economise \u2014 industrial demand is forecast to fall from 640.2 million ounces to 618.2 million. The price forecast still points upward, with a 2027 average of $84.40 against $72.60 this year. One important caveat: this is a projection, not an event, and silver&#8217;s supply side moves in years rather than weeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-19\/golds-path-6000-and-silvers-return-above-90-depend-renewed-investor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 19 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold ETF holdings are holding near their highs for the year despite the price drop \u2014 and Asia is driving the growth.<\/strong> According to a review by Heraeus analysts, Bloomberg-tracked gold ETF holdings reached a year-to-date peak of 101.3 million ounces on 8 October, 5.3% above the 20 July low of 96.2 million ounces and roughly 2% above where the year started; they have stayed just above 101 million ounces since. Asian-listed funds accounted for almost half of the increase over the twelve months to September, US funds about 30% and European funds 20%. Fund buyers and futures traders are currently moving in opposite directions \u2014 the same pattern that explained the sharp but short declines of recent weeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-19\/gold-and-silver-prices-pressured-hot-inflation-gold-etf-holdings-buck-trend\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 19 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>This week&#8217;s price and what it means for an Estonian investor<\/h2>\n<p>On the morning of Monday 26 October, the Estonian counter price for a one-ounce investment gold coin ran roughly \u20ac3,700\u20133,900: Krugerrand (earlier years) \u20ac3,699, Kangaroo \u20ac3,753, Britannia \u20ac3,762, Philharmonic \u20ac3,770, Maple Leaf \u20ac3,826, American Eagle \u20ac3,898. One-ounce gold bars sat in the same band \u2014 Valcambi \u20ac3,743, Argor-Heraeus and PAMP Suisse \u20ac3,759, PAMP Fortuna \u20ac3,809. A tenth-ounce Philharmonic cost \u20ac426. One-ounce silver coins ranged from \u20ac67.08 to \u20ac70.18.<\/p>\n<p>Week on week that works out to a decline of roughly 3.2% on gold coins: Krugerrand from \u20ac3,822 to \u20ac3,699, Philharmonic from \u20ac3,894 to \u20ac3,770, Maple Leaf from \u20ac3,952 to \u20ac3,826. The dollar market fell 4.1%, so the euro buyer got off more lightly \u2014 the European Central Bank reference rate weakened from $1.1253 on 16 October to $1.1193 on 23 October, and a softer euro offset part of the dollar-price decline. A stronger euro would have amplified it. Silver saw the bigger markdown: the counter price for a one-ounce coin fell from last week&#8217;s \u20ac71.30\u201374.40 range to \u20ac67.08\u201370.18, close to 6%. The gold-to-silver ratio rose from 73.3 to 74.1 \u2014 silver lost ground to gold for a second straight week, though by far less than the week before.<\/p>\n<p>What follows from this in practice? First: over two weeks the counter price of a one-ounce gold coin has fallen by nearly \u20ac140, which is more than the typical premium gap between coin series. Anyone who has been choosing a series on price difference alone can see that the market move now exceeds that gap \u2014 the spread between the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-coins\/krugerrand-gold-coin\/\">Krugerrand<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-coins\/philharmonic-gold-coin\/\">Philharmonic<\/a> is \u20ac71, while this week&#8217;s move was \u20ac124. Second: the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/silver-price\/\">silver price<\/a> is back at July levels, but the reasons behind it are known and have not gone away \u2014 expensive oil, doubts about industrial demand, and surplus forecasts for 2027. Silver swings considerably more than gold, and silver carries VAT, while gold coins and bars qualify as investment gold and are VAT-exempt; that tax difference is permanent and does not depend on price moves. Third: anyone buying on a regular schedule gets more grams for the same euro this month than in September \u2014 and that is the entire mechanism regular buying offers. Those who prefer a lower premium over an elaborate coin design can look at the one-ounce <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-bars\/argor-heraeus-gold-bar\/\">Argor-Heraeus gold bar<\/a>; those adding silver will find the one-ounce <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/silver\/silver-coins\/austrian-silver-philharmonic\/\">Philharmonic silver coin<\/a> about four euros cheaper than a week ago.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch next<\/h2>\n<p>Wednesday&#8217;s Fed decision is the clear focal point of the week, though not because the decision itself is in doubt \u2014 a 9% probability means a pause is essentially priced in. What matters more is the language about December, which futures markets put at an 81% chance of a hike: a softer tone would remove some of gold&#8217;s headwind, a firmer one would add to it. Thursday&#8217;s PCE reading is the other half of the same logic. The second thing to watch is still oil: if Brent holds in the $110\u2013117 range, inflation expectations stay high and silver&#8217;s industrial leg stays under pressure. The third is the exchange rate \u2014 at $1.12 the euro&#8217;s weakness has been propping up counter prices, and a reversal would hit the euro investor as hard as a move in the metal itself. Fourth, the World Gold Council&#8217;s third-quarter demand report is due at the end of the month, and it will show whether central bank and fund buying offset the weakness in jewellery demand.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold lost 4.1% on the week and broke below $4,000; silver fell to $53.90. Oil above $117, Fed decision Wednesday. Estonian counter prices down 3.2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3911\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}