{"id":3887,"date":"2026-10-19T09:15:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T06:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-weekly-silver-breaks-ranks-with-gold\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T09:15:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T06:15:29","slug":"precious-metals-weekly-silver-breaks-ranks-with-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-weekly-silver-breaks-ranks-with-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Weekly: Silver Breaks Ranks With Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review for the week of 12\u201316 October 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Gold finished the week almost exactly where it started. Silver did not. Wednesday&#8217;s inflation print briefly knocked gold below $4,075; by Friday evening it was back at $4,165, half a percent down on the week. Silver, meanwhile, lost more than six percent and fell to its lowest level in three months, because crude breaking above $100 hits silver&#8217;s industrial leg. On the Estonian counter that worked out to roughly 0.4% off a one-ounce gold coin and nearly 5% off a one-ounce silver coin. Watch only the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold-price\/\">gold price<\/a> and the week looks dull; watch both metals and it was the most telling divergence in months.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s main news<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>September CPI came in hotter than expected and gold hit its weekly low on Wednesday.<\/strong> Prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% year over year, against 3.4% in August and a 3.6% consensus. Core inflation was up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% annually. Energy did most of the damage: gasoline jumped 9.1% and the energy index 5.2%. Gold fell 1.18% to $4,110.90 in Wednesday morning trade and silver 1.97% to $57.890; by midday gold touched the week&#8217;s floor at $4,073.35. The logic is familiar \u2014 hotter inflation keeps a rate hike on the table, and a higher rate makes money more expensive to hold in a metal that pays no interest. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-14\/gold-silver-drop-hotter-cpi-revives-fed-rate-pressure-kitco-am-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 14 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal an October hike, and gold recovered into the weekend.<\/strong> Speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on Thursday, Warsh left the next move open, and markets read it as a pause: by Friday, futures put the odds of no change at the 27\u201328 October meeting at about 83%, up from roughly 72% on Thursday. A December hike remained firmly priced in. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked near 5.299% during the week before recovering toward 5.12% on Friday. The dollar weakened for the first time in five weeks \u2014 which, as Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International noted, should work in gold&#8217;s favour. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-16\/wall-street-undecided-golds-near-term-trajectory-main-street-flirts-bearish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 16 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude above $100 and split silver away from gold.<\/strong> Strikes on commercial vessels near the strait, alongside US\u2013Iran tensions, lifted WTI to $101.41 a barrel \u2014 its first move above $100 since September \u2014 while Brent settled at $109.86. On Friday gold held at $4,167.90, down just 0.05%, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/silver-price\/\">silver price<\/a> fell 0.78% to $56.850. The reason lies in silver&#8217;s two legs: lower yields support investment demand, while costlier energy and weakness in the tech sector drag on the industrial side. David Morrison of Trade Nation noted that the week&#8217;s selloff took silver to levels last seen three months ago. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-16\/gold-silver-diverge-fed-pause-expectations-collide-rising-crude-prices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 16 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>China&#8217;s central bank bought 23 tonnes of gold in September \u2014 its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.<\/strong> That makes 23 consecutive months of accumulation; third-quarter buying totalled 63 tonnes and year-to-date additions reached 103 tonnes. China&#8217;s official holdings now stand at 2,410 tonnes, or 8.5% of reserves. Chinese gold ETF holdings also hit a month-end record of 304 tonnes in September, a third straight monthly increase. Ray Jia, the World Gold Council&#8217;s head of China research, said macro conditions should stay supportive for bullion investment, though jewellery demand remains weak \u2014 third-quarter wholesale demand fell 21% year over year to 234 tonnes. Central bank buying is the slowest-moving part of gold demand, and it does not disappear because the price slips a couple of percent in a week. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-15\/china-buys-gold-dip-etf-holdings-hit-record-and-holiday-demand-lifts-q4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 15 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold funds took in a record $31 billion in the third quarter and holdings are at an all-time high.<\/strong> September alone added $10 billion, or 67.3 tonnes, lifting global gold ETF holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes. North American funds drew $11.7 billion (81.3 tonnes) over the quarter \u2014 their first positive quarter this year \u2014 Europe a record $14 billion, and the UK on its own a record $7.5 billion. The detail that matters for a euro-based investor: this money arrived while the price was falling. Fund buyers and the futures market were pulling in opposite directions, which explains why the decline was sharp but never turned into panic. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-12\/gold-etf-demand-defies-rising-bond-yields-investors-pour-31-billion-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 12 Oct 2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows\/2026\/10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Gold Council ETF report<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The strike at Mexico&#8217;s San Dimas mine drags on, and silver supply is heading for a sixth straight deficit year.<\/strong> First Majestic&#8217;s third-quarter silver output there fell 41% year over year; the company cites 12 lost operating days and lower ore grades. Work stopped on 18 September, and on 8 October roughly 800 workers declared a formal strike over safety conditions, worn equipment, breaches of the labour contract and a productivity bonus. At last year&#8217;s pace, every further month of strike removes about 0.5 million ounces. Mexico&#8217;s mined silver output was 4.3% lower year over year in July. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast a 46.3-million-ounce shortfall for 2026 \u2014 a sixth consecutive deficit year. The author of the commentary stresses the point himself: supply-side effects like these move the price over a year, not over a week. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/opinion\/2026-10-15\/silver-output-mexicos-san-dimas-mine-fell-41-and-now-it-has-stopped\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco (Przemyslaw Radomski), 15 Oct 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Comment of the week: Peter Schiff on inflation<\/h2>\n<p>On 15 October, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/PeterSchiff\/status\/2110734062461620529\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peter Schiff wrote on X<\/a> that despite a much hotter-than-expected September producer price index, gold had already recovered all of the previous day&#8217;s losses \u2014 losses caused by a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI. His conclusion: &#8220;Maybe investors are finally realizing that higher inflation is bullish for gold.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The factual half checks out: September inflation beat expectations, and Thursday&#8217;s PPI ran hotter than forecast too. The interpretation is a different matter. Analysts in the same week&#8217;s Kitco survey split down the middle: of twelve, four expected gains, two declines and six sideways movement. Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets put the counter-argument precisely \u2014 gold responds to shifting real-yield expectations, not to the inflation number alone. If nominal rates rise faster than inflation, hotter inflation does nothing for gold. We are not endorsing either forecast; both are opinions about the same set of facts.<\/p>\n<h2>This week&#8217;s price and what it means for an investor in Estonia<\/h2>\n<p>On the morning of Monday 19 October, the Estonian counter price for a one-ounce investment gold coin ran roughly \u20ac3,820\u20133,950: Krugerrand (earlier years) \u20ac3,822, Kangaroo \u20ac3,878, Britannia \u20ac3,887, Philharmonic \u20ac3,894, Maple Leaf \u20ac3,952. One-ounce gold bars sat in the same band \u2014 Valcambi \u20ac3,866, Argor-Heraeus and PAMP Suisse \u20ac3,883, PAMP Fortuna \u20ac3,935. The smallest common unit, a 1\/10-ounce Philharmonic, cost \u20ac440. One-ounce silver coins ranged from \u20ac71.30 to \u20ac74.40.<\/p>\n<p>Set against last Monday, the counter shows exactly the same divergence as the dollar market. Gold coin prices eased about 0.4% over the week \u2014 Krugerrand from \u20ac3,836 to \u20ac3,822, Philharmonic from \u20ac3,909 to \u20ac3,894, Maple Leaf from \u20ac3,967 to \u20ac3,952. Silver coins, by contrast, dropped from a \u20ac75.02\u201378.12 band to \u20ac71.30\u201374.40, close to 5%. The gold-silver ratio stood at 73.3 on Friday against 69.1 a week earlier: silver gave up more than four points to gold in five sessions. The exchange rate worked only mildly against the euro buyer \u2014 the ECB reference rate rose from $1.1181 on 12 October to $1.1253 on 16 October, so a slightly firmer euro cushioned part of the dollar-price decline when measured in euros.<\/p>\n<p>In practice that means two things. First, if your buying plan is in gold, this was a week of nothing much: a swing of a few dozen euros on a one-ounce coin is no reason to change course, and the spread between a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-coins\/krugerrand-gold-coin\/\">Krugerrand<\/a> and a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-coins\/maple-leaf-gold-coin\/\">Maple Leaf<\/a> is still wider than the week&#8217;s price move. Second, silver came with a near-5% discount \u2014 but the discount came with a reason attached, namely industrial-demand worries and crude. Silver swings considerably more than gold, and VAT applies to silver while gold coins qualify as investment gold and are VAT-exempt; that gap is structural and one price drop does not close it. If you want to add silver, a one-ounce <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/silver\/silver-coins\/austrian-silver-philharmonic\/\">Philharmonic silver coin<\/a> is currently about four euros cheaper than a week ago; if you prefer gold, look at the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold\/gold-coins\/philharmonic-gold-coin\/\">Philharmonic gold coin<\/a> \u2014 or a smaller unit, if a full ounce is too large a step in one go.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch next<\/h2>\n<p>The main calendar item is the Fed&#8217;s 27\u201328 October meeting, going in with roughly 83% odds of no change priced in \u2014 an unexpected hike would be a sharp short-term blow for gold, while an expected pause reads more as support. A December hike is still on the table, and every new inflation print moves that expectation. The second thing to watch is crude: if attacks around the Strait of Hormuz keep Brent above $100, that works for gold through inflation fear and against silver through industrial demand \u2014 precisely the mechanism that pulled the two metals apart last week. The third is the exchange rate: at $1.12\u20131.13 a weaker euro has been holding counter prices up, and a reversal would hit a euro-based investor as hard as a move in the metal itself.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weekly market review: gold held near $4,165 while silver fell to $56.85. Estonian counter prices, central bank buying and a record ETF quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3884,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3887\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}