{"id":3810,"date":"2026-10-12T09:14:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T06:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-weekly-silver-at-60-gold-claws-back\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T09:14:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T06:14:13","slug":"precious-metals-weekly-silver-at-60-gold-claws-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-weekly-silver-at-60-gold-claws-back\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Weekly: Silver at $60, Gold Claws Back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review for the week of 5\u20139 October 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A week that ran in both directions. On Wednesday, gold slid below $4,100 after the Fed minutes; by Friday it was back near $4,194 and finished the week in the black. Silver reached the $60 mark. In Estonian counter prices that meant roughly a 1.3% rise for a one-ounce gold coin \u2014 and for the first time in several weeks, the dollar price and the euro price moved the same way. In the background, the World Gold Council&#8217;s August central-bank data landed: 39 tonnes added, with China logging its 22nd consecutive month of buying.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s main stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The Fed minutes kept a December rate hike on the table, and gold broke below $4,100 on Wednesday.<\/strong> The minutes showed that most Fed officials still expect one more hike this year. Gold fell 1.28% on the day to $4,109.90 and silver dropped 2.55% to $59.67. The logic is familiar to gold: a higher policy rate means holding money in a bond pays more than holding a metal that pays no interest at all. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-07\/gold-silver-slump-fed-minutes-keep-december-hike-risk-alive-kitco-pm-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 07.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>On Friday gold rose 1.50% to $4,194.50 and silver jumped 2.77% to $60.70.<\/strong> Three things lined up behind the rebound: the dollar eased early in the session, Treasury yields pulled back from the week&#8217;s extremes, and bargain hunters returned at the lower prices. The 10-year yield stood at 5.24% on Friday and the dollar index near 102.10. Gold ended the week at $4,187.30, more than 1% above the previous Friday \u2014 and the entire gain came in the final two trading sessions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-09\/gold-tests-4200-weak-sentiment-offsets-sticky-inflation-expectations-kitco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 09.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Central banks bought 39 tonnes of gold in August, bringing the year-to-date total to roughly 170 tonnes.<\/strong> The largest buyers were China, Uzbekistan and Poland. China added 20 tonnes in August, its 22nd straight month of purchases. Poland leads the year at 98 tonnes. Russia was a net seller in August (\u22126 tonnes), while Turkey returned to buying after three months of sales. Official-sector buying is the slowest and least price-sensitive part of gold demand: it does not disappear because the price fell three percent in a week. <a href=\"https:\/\/kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-06\/central-banks-add-39-net-tonnes-gold-august-china-uzbekistan-and-poland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco \/ World Gold Council data, 06.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The dollar index broke above its June high while the euro held around $1.12.<\/strong> The European Central Bank&#8217;s reference rate was 1.1206 dollars per euro on 9 October, against 1.1269 on 6 October \u2014 the euro weakened slightly over the week. The dollar index broke above its June peak of about 101.75; LPL Financial&#8217;s Adam Turnquist flagged 102.86 as the next level. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for every buyer outside the United States \u2014 and it also keeps the euro-denominated counter price elevated even when the dollar price falls. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-09\/gold-price-holds-critical-4100-support-can-it-break-4200-inflation-risks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 09.10.2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/stats\/policy_and_exchange_rates\/euro_reference_exchange_rates\/html\/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ECB reference rates<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold ETFs kept buying through the decline, while consumer sentiment hit a long-term low.<\/strong> Saxo Bank&#8217;s Ole Hansen pointed to &#8220;several weeks of ETF buying&#8221; \u2014 money kept flowing into gold funds even as the price fell. At the same time, the University of Michigan&#8217;s preliminary October consumer sentiment reading dropped to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations to 3.5%. A weak consumer alongside rising inflation expectations is precisely the combination that leaves a central bank without an easy answer. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-09\/gold-price-holds-critical-4100-support-can-it-break-4200-inflation-risks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 09.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Comment of the week: Peter Schiff on the bond auction<\/h2>\n<p>In a Kitco video interview on 8 October, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-08\/peter-schiff-says-rising-yields-are-most-bullish-thing-gold-warns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peter Schiff<\/a> argued that rising bond yields are good news for gold, not bad: &#8220;It&#8217;s the most bullish thing that could happen to gold and silver.&#8221; His reasoning is that as bond prices fall, some bondholders will exit their positions and look for an alternative. The facts he cited are checkable: the 10-year yield touched 5.35% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, and the Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 5.3% yield, with primary dealers taking just 2.5% of the issue against a typical 9.4%. Schiff also said he holds more of his own money in mining equities than in physical bullion.<\/p>\n<p>That is one market participant&#8217;s interpretation, not a forecast we endorse \u2014 the weak auction demand is a fact; what it means for the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/gold-price\/\">gold price<\/a> is an opinion. The other side of the argument came the same week from FXTM&#8217;s Lukman Otunuga: markets are not pricing a hike in October but are pricing one for December, and over the medium term the advantage sits with the sellers.<\/p>\n<h2>This week&#8217;s price and what it means for an Estonian investor<\/h2>\n<p>On the morning of Monday 12 October, the Estonian counter price for a one-ounce investment gold coin was roughly \u20ac3,840\u20133,970: Krugerrand (earlier years) \u20ac3,836, Kangaroo \u20ac3,892, Britannia \u20ac3,901, Philharmonic \u20ac3,909, Maple Leaf \u20ac3,967. One-ounce gold bars sat in the same range \u2014 Valcambi \u20ac3,881, Argor-Heraeus \u20ac3,898, PAMP Fortuna \u20ac3,950. The smallest common unit, a 1\/10 oz Philharmonic, cost \u20ac442. A one-ounce silver coin ran \u20ac75.02\u201378.12.<\/p>\n<p><strong>First<\/strong>, this time both prices moved in the same direction. A one-ounce Philharmonic was \u20ac3,858 at the counter a week ago and \u20ac3,909 now \u2014 a 1.3% rise, while gold&#8217;s dollar price gained a little over one percent for the week. Britannia (+1.3%) and Maple Leaf (+1.3%) moved by exactly the same amount. The previous two weeks had the currency working against the metal: the dollar price fell while the euro price held or rose. This week the euro no longer changed the direction, it simply added a couple of tenths to the gain. Buying in euros always means two prices at once \u2014 the metal&#8217;s and the currency&#8217;s \u2014 but some weeks they are telling the same story.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second<\/strong>, the size of the premium. At Friday&#8217;s price level and the ECB rate, gold&#8217;s spot price in euros was roughly \u20ac3,743 per ounce. A counter price of \u20ac3,909 therefore represents about a 4.4% premium \u2014 a typical range for a one-ounce coin, covering minting, logistics, insurance and the dealer&#8217;s margin. Smaller units are always more expensive per gram: a 1\/10 oz coin at \u20ac442 works out to roughly \u20ac4,420 per ounce, a premium of over 18%. That is nobody&#8217;s mistake, just the arithmetic of production cost \u2014 minting a tenth of an ounce is not ten times cheaper than minting a full ounce. If you buy small units for flexibility, you pay for that convenience at the moment of purchase.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Third<\/strong>, the gap in silver. Silver&#8217;s spot price in euros was around \u20ac54 per ounce on Friday, while the counter price for a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2852\">one-ounce silver coin<\/a> was \u20ac75.02. Most of that gap is not premium but tax: investment gold \u2014 such as a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3459\">Philharmonic gold coin<\/a>, a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3495\">Britannia gold coin<\/a> or an <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3515\">Argor-Heraeus gold bar<\/a> \u2014 is VAT-exempt in Estonia, whereas silver carries 24% VAT. Strip out the tax and the silver coin&#8217;s premium is roughly 12%, which is normal for a one-ounce silver piece. The practical conclusion is the same as always: after you buy, silver&#8217;s price has to rise considerably more than gold&#8217;s before a sale breaks even. The gold-silver ratio stood at 69.1 on Friday, against 68.6 a week earlier \u2014 silver lagged gold slightly over the week, even though it was the day&#8217;s winner on Friday.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch next<\/h2>\n<p>The calendar is busy and three items on it move gold directly. Wednesday brings the U.S. consumer price index \u2014 Otunuga called it the week&#8217;s main risk, because the inflation number is what decides whether a December hike stays on the table. Thursday adds the producer price index, retail sales and jobless claims, plus remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at an IMF event. Technically, $4,200 is the level analysts say gold needs to hold above before buyers come back; below it, support sits at $4,100 and then $4,000, while on the upside the 100-day moving average sits around $4,260. A euro-based investor should also keep an eye on the currency: at $1.12, euro weakness is currently the force holding the counter price up, and a reversal in the rate would hit the price just as hard as a move in the metal itself.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold fell below $4,100 after the Fed minutes, then closed the week at $4,194 with silver at $60.70. Central banks added 39 tonnes in August.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3807,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3810"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3810\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}