{"id":3774,"date":"2026-10-05T09:15:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-weekly-weak-euro-cancelled-golds-drop\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T09:15:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:15:09","slug":"precious-metals-weekly-weak-euro-cancelled-golds-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-weekly-weak-euro-cancelled-golds-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Weekly: A Weak Euro Cancelled Gold&#8217;s Drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review for the week of 28 September \u2013 2 October 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The dollar price fell. The shop price did not. Gold lost 3.4% on the week and closed Friday at $4,140.06, yet the price of a one-ounce gold coin in an Estonian shop finished almost exactly where it had been seven days earlier. The difference was currency: the euro sank to a 17-month low and, for a euro-based buyer, cancelled out the entire dollar decline. Two other stories are worth your attention \u2014 the supply picture for silver has turned, and the World Gold Council published a look at how much gold pension funds actually hold.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s main headlines<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Gold closed the week 3.4% lower at $4,140.06.<\/strong> Friday saw gold slip 0.9%, silver 0.8% to $60.36, platinum 2% to $1,692.90 and palladium 0.5% to $1,165.75. The pressure came from two directions at once: a strengthening dollar and high bond yields, which raise the cost of holding an asset that pays no interest. That makes three consecutive down weeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/off-the-wire\/2026-10-02\/gold-heads-weekly-drop-strong-dollar-elevated-treasury-yields-weigh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 02.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% \u2014 its highest since April 2002.<\/strong> On Thursday the 10-year hit 5.34% intraday and settled at 5.272%, with the 2-year at 4.814%. Over the third quarter, the 10-year posted its largest quarterly rise of this century. High long-term yields are gold&#8217;s most direct competitor: a bond pays interest, a coin does not. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/off-the-wire\/2026-10-01\/yields-fall-after-us-10-year-hits-highest-2002-stocks-euro-also\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 01.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The euro fell below $1.13 for the first time since May 2025.<\/strong> Thursday saw the euro trade at $1.1238, down 0.79% and a 17-month low. Steven Major, global macro advisor at Tradition, pinned the move on European vulnerability: &#8220;Europe imports energy and is vulnerable to higher rates, even another eurozone financial crisis.&#8221; For a euro-based investor this is the most consequential number of the week \u2014 more on that below. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/off-the-wire\/2026-10-01\/yields-fall-after-us-10-year-hits-highest-2002-stocks-euro-also\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 01.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>US payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the odds of an October Fed hike collapsed from 70% to 22%.<\/strong> Economists had expected 90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and July and August figures were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. Gold rallied more than 1% on the news, then gave it all back by the close. Edward Meir of Marex warned that &#8220;the charts still look fairly grim&#8221; should the rate cycle resume its climb. A weak labour market eases rate pressure while high yields restore it \u2014 this week, the second force won. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-02\/metals-give-back-jobs-report-bounce-oil-yields-stay-elevated-kitco-pm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 02.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Deutsche Bank reckons the silver market has tipped into oversupply.<\/strong> Daniel Ghali, the bank&#8217;s head of metals research, said free-floating London silver inventories have risen to their highest level since November 2024 \u2014 a year ago, physical availability was at its tightest. The cause is demand destruction at high prices: Chinese industrial demand for silver in solar applications is down roughly a third year on year. His read on gold was the opposite: positioning is &#8220;probably the most bearish since October 2021,&#8221; yet official sector buying is running at more than double its 2021 pace. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-02\/golds-resilience-supports-strong-outlook-silver-faces-oversupply-copper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 02.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>US\u2013Iran peace talks stalled, keeping oil elevated.<\/strong> Negotiations to end the seven-month conflict ran aground, which held Brent at $101.23 and WTI at $90.70 a barrel. Expensive oil cuts both ways for gold: it keeps inflation expectations alive, while also feeding the very bond yields that weigh on the metal. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-02\/metals-give-back-jobs-report-bounce-oil-yields-stay-elevated-kitco-pm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 02.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The World Gold Council published case studies on how much gold pension funds hold.<\/strong> Across four funds, allocations sit between 2% and 5%: the Netherlands&#8217; Pensioenfonds PDN (\u20ac7.7bn in assets) holds 5%, Fairfax County Retirement Systems in the US ($6.2bn) holds 3%, the UK&#8217;s Now Pensions 2% and Australia&#8217;s NGS Super 3%. The reasoning is similar everywhere \u2014 equity-bond correlation has risen, so traditional diversification works less well than it used to. PDN&#8217;s own analysis pointed to &#8220;lower expected portfolio risk without a reduction in expected return.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2026\/10\/gold-pension-funds-case-studies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Gold Council, 01.10.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>This week&#8217;s price and what it means for an Estonian investor<\/h2>\n<p>On the morning of Monday 5 October, the Estonian counter price for a one-ounce investment gold coin sat in the \u20ac3,800\u20133,900 range: Krugerrand (earlier years) \u20ac3,817, Kangaroo \u20ac3,841, Britannia \u20ac3,850, Philharmonic \u20ac3,858, Maple Leaf \u20ac3,915. One-ounce gold bars were in the same band \u2014 Valcambi \u20ac3,830, Argor-Heraeus \u20ac3,846. The smallest common unit, a 1\/10 oz Philharmonic, cost \u20ac436. A one-ounce silver coin ran \u20ac74.90\u201378.00.<\/p>\n<p><strong>First<\/strong>, and most importantly: a euro-based investor barely saw this decline. The counter price of a one-ounce Philharmonic was \u20ac3,839 a week ago and \u20ac3,858 now \u2014 roughly a 0.5% <em>rise<\/em>, while gold&#8217;s dollar price fell 3.4%. The entire gap comes from euro weakness: when the euro drops to a 17-month low, a dollar decline disappears into the exchange rate for a euro buyer. Last week the same mechanism ran in reverse, and the euro investor&#8217;s loss was steeper than the dollar holder&#8217;s. If you buy in euros, you are always holding two prices at once: the metal&#8217;s and the currency&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second<\/strong>, the gold-silver ratio has widened. At Friday&#8217;s closing prices \u2014 gold $4,140.06 and silver $60.36 \u2014 one ounce of gold buys roughly 68.6 ounces of silver, against about 66 a week earlier. Deutsche Bank&#8217;s oversupply call and the widening ratio tell the same story: silver moved weaker than gold this week. Three weeks is not a trend, but it is worth remembering that silver&#8217;s price is driven by industry as well as investment demand \u2014 and industrial demand answers to the economic cycle, not to geopolitics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Third<\/strong>, the tax gap. Investment gold \u2014 a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3459\">Philharmonic gold coin<\/a>, a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3495\">Britannia gold coin<\/a> or an <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3515\">Argor-Heraeus gold bar<\/a>, for instance \u2014 is VAT-exempt in Estonia. A <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2852\">one-ounce silver coin<\/a> carries 24% VAT, which means silver&#8217;s price has to rise considerably further after purchase before the investor is back to break-even. The 2\u20135% pension fund allocations the WGC described were implemented through futures and funds, where that tax question never arises. For someone buying physical metal in Estonia, it does.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch next<\/h2>\n<p>Three loose ends. First, the Fed&#8217;s October decision: the market puts the odds of a hike at 22%, down from 70% at the start of the week \u2014 a swing that large in seven days means every incoming data point will move gold too. Second, the bond market: if the 10-year yield holds near 5.3%, the pressure on gold stays regardless of what the Fed does. Third, the euro \u2014 at $1.1238, a euro investor&#8217;s position looks materially different from a dollar investor&#8217;s, and a reversal in the exchange rate would hit the counter price as hard as a move in the metal itself. Han Tan of Bybit summed up the mood: &#8220;Gold bugs are perhaps refusing to get carried away for the time being, knowing that the Fed retains a hawkish bias.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold fell 3.4% on the week, but a 17-month low in the euro left Estonian counter prices flat. Yields, silver oversupply and pension fund gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3771,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3774\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}