{"id":3746,"date":"2026-09-28T09:18:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:18:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-weekly-gold-fell-buyers-didnt\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:18:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:18:39","slug":"precious-metals-weekly-gold-fell-buyers-didnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-weekly-gold-fell-buyers-didnt\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Weekly: Gold Fell, Buyers Didn&#8217;t"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review for the week of 21\u201325 September 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Gold closed out its second losing week in a row. The pressure came from the usual quarter: US Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007, and the market began pricing in another Fed rate hike in October. What happened on the other side of the counter is the more interesting story. While the price fell, gold ETF holdings rose for an eighth consecutive day, and Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks bought roughly twice as much gold in July as they officially disclosed. It was a week in which the price chart and buying behaviour pointed in opposite directions.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s main stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Gold lost 2.17% over the week.<\/strong> The week opened firmly \u2014 on Tuesday gold traded near $4,356.80 and silver near $66.97, as diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil lower and took the edge off inflation fears. The rest of the week went the other way. The weekly high held at $4,387.51, the low came on Thursday at $4,244.63, and the close was $4,284.97 \u2014 2.17% below the previous week. Friday brought a modest bounce: gold at $4,289.70 (+0.38%) and silver at $64.17 (+0.69%). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-22\/silver-leads-metals-higher-dollar-strength-caps-gold-after-fed-rate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 22.09.2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-25\/wall-street-split-gold-price-path-after-drop-below-4300-main-street\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 25.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% \u2014 the highest since 2007.<\/strong> The pressure came from rate expectations. Wednesday&#8217;s flash S&amp;P Global composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56 in August, pointing to robust economic activity. On Thursday, jobless claims fell to 197,000 and gold broke through its 50-day moving average, down to $4,265.30. By Friday, futures markets put the odds of a rate hike next month at 68.6%. Higher rates weigh on gold for a simple reason: the metal pays no interest of its own. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-23\/spot-gold-drops-4280oz-flash-sp-composite-pmi-improves-584-september\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 23.09.2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-24\/gold-price-breaks-50-day-support-oil-rebound-lifts-inflation-pressure-kitco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 24.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>US and Iranian negotiators are in New York discussing reopening the Strait of Hormuz.<\/strong> The talks centre on a phased exit from the war: Tehran would reopen the strait, and Washington would lift its economic blockade. Oil responded by falling \u2014 WTI to $92.41 a barrel (\u22122.3%) and Brent to $104.32 (\u22122.1%). For gold, this cuts both ways. On one hand, part of the geopolitical premium disappears. On the other, cheaper oil eases inflation pressure, which in turn relieves some of the upward pressure on Treasury yields. The outcome itself remains open. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-25\/gold-caps-weekly-loss-fed-bets-52-yields-limit-rebound-kitco-pm-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 25.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Goldman Sachs: central banks are buying more than the statistics show.<\/strong> Bank analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven estimate that central banks bought 44 tonnes of gold in July, against a pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. The estimate is built by tracking volumes moving through London&#8217;s OTC market. The gap between official and estimated figures is widest for China: Goldman&#8217;s model points to 35 tonnes in July, while roughly 18 tonnes were officially reported. Indirect confirmation came from the Bank of England, whose holdings on behalf of foreign central banks rose by 63 tonnes in July. The bank forecasts gold at $4,900 an ounce by year-end. A forecast, it bears repeating, is not a fact. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-23\/gold-price-will-hit-4900oz-2026-strong-sovereign-demand-china-buys-75-more\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 23.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold ETF holdings rose for an eighth straight day, even as the price fell.<\/strong> According to Kitco&#8217;s 21 September review, total gold held by ETFs reached 100.4 million ounces, the highest level since 3 March. The most recent trading session alone added 52,500 ounces, worth $227.9 million. Year to date, funds have bought a net 1.46 million ounces. Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen points out that this breaks the textbook relationship: the 10-year real yield climbed to 2.63% in September, a 20-year high, and in the past that would have triggered outflows. In Hansen&#8217;s reading, investors no longer see high long-term yields purely as an alternative to gold, but also as a warning signal about public finances. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/opinion\/2026-09-21\/gold-swot-gold-etf-holdings-extended-their-buying-streak-eight-consecutive-days\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 21.09.2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-09-22\/etf-flows-show-gold-price-decoupled-real-yields-fiscal-concerns-now-drive\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 22.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Silver is holding up better than gold, but remains far from its January peak.<\/strong> Kitco&#8217;s 21 September review had silver as the previous week&#8217;s best-performing precious metal (+2.63%), with palladium the worst (\u22120.48%). At the same time, analyst Przemyslaw Radomski offers a reminder about proportion: on 22 September silver stood at $65.38 and gold at $4,322.95, putting the gold-silver ratio at 66.1. Silver is down roughly 8% for the year and about 46% below the $121.58 peak it reached in January. Radomski&#8217;s argument is that silver is currently driven by long-term interest rates and the oil price feeding them, not by a supply deficit. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/opinion\/2026-09-21\/gold-swot-gold-etf-holdings-extended-their-buying-streak-eight-consecutive-days\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 21.09.2026<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/opinion\/2026-09-23\/silver-trades-yield-not-deficit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 23.09.2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>This week&#8217;s price and what it means for the Estonian investor<\/h2>\n<p>On the morning of Monday 28 September, the Estonian counter price for a one-ounce investment gold coin ran between roughly \u20ac3,800 and \u20ac3,900: Krugerrand (earlier years) \u20ac3,798, Kangaroo \u20ac3,822, Britannia \u20ac3,831, Philharmonic \u20ac3,839, Maple Leaf \u20ac3,896. One-ounce cast bars sat in the same range \u2014 Valcambi \u20ac3,811, Argor-Heraeus \u20ac3,828. The smallest common unit, the 1\/10-ounce Philharmonic, cost \u20ac434. A one-ounce silver coin ranged from \u20ac74.65 to \u20ac77.75.<\/p>\n<p>Three observations. <strong>First<\/strong>, the drop was steeper for euro buyers than the dollar quote suggests. The counter price of a one-ounce Philharmonic fell from \u20ac3,965 to \u20ac3,839 over the week \u2014 about 3.2% \u2014 while gold&#8217;s dollar price fell 2.17%. The difference is the exchange rate: this week the euro-dollar move worked in the euro investor&#8217;s favour, whereas last week it did precisely the opposite. When you buy in euros, you are always adding two currency movements together.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second<\/strong>, silver fell harder than gold \u2014 the counter price of a one-ounce coin dropped from about \u20ac79 to around \u20ac75 over the week, roughly 5%. This is silver&#8217;s habitual pattern: it moves in the same direction as gold but with a wider swing, because the market is smaller and industrial demand ties it to the economic cycle. A gold-silver ratio of 66 means one ounce of gold would currently buy 66 ounces of silver.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Third<\/strong>, the tax difference still stands, and for an Estonian buyer it matters more than any single week&#8217;s price move. Investment gold \u2014 such as a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3459\">Philharmonic gold coin<\/a>, a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3495\">Britannia gold coin<\/a> or an <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3515\">Argor-Heraeus gold bar<\/a> \u2014 is exempt from VAT in Estonia. A <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2852\">one-ounce silver coin<\/a> carries 24% VAT, which means the silver price has to rise further after purchase before the investor breaks even. A lower price does not change that arithmetic.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch this week<\/h2>\n<p>The calendar is crowded. Tuesday brings a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, plus US consumer confidence and the JOLTS job openings data. Wednesday delivers the ADP payrolls report, final Q2 GDP and the PCE index, the Fed&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge. Thursday brings the ISM manufacturing PMI and weekly jobless claims. The week&#8217;s most important number lands on Friday: the September employment report. Kitco&#8217;s survey found opinion split \u2014 of 14 Wall Street analysts, five (36%) expected gains, four (29%) declines and five (36%) sideways trade, while 57% of 152 retail investors expected gains. A survey describes sentiment, not price direction.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"gms-chart\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-1024x512.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large\" alt=\"Gold price chart, last 30 days (spot, EUR)\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-1024x512.webp 1024w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-300x150.webp 300w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-768x384.webp 768w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-1536x768.webp 1536w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-2048x1024.webp 2048w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-600x300.webp 600w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-500x250.webp 500w, https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gms-chart-3741-20260928-700x350.webp 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Gold price (spot, EUR\/oz), last 30 trading days. Source: market (Yahoo Finance).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold lost 2.17% on the week as Treasury yields hit 5.2%. Meanwhile ETF holdings kept climbing and central banks bought more than the official numbers show.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3743,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}