{"id":3352,"date":"2026-08-03T09:16:08","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T06:16:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/precious-metals-week-hawkish-fed-gold-month-green\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T09:16:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T06:16:08","slug":"precious-metals-week-hawkish-fed-gold-month-green","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/precious-metals-week-hawkish-fed-gold-month-green\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Week: A Hawkish Fed, But Gold&#8217;s Month Ends Green"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Market review, 3 August 2026 \u2014 the week of 27 July to 2 August.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The end of July handed precious metals something rare: relative calm. Gold spent the whole week in a narrow band above $4,000 as two opposing forces cancelled each other out \u2014 a hawkish Fed, a firm dollar and elevated bond yields on one side; cooling inflation, geopolitical risk and steady central-bank demand on the other. The upshot was gold&#8217;s first positive month in five. Below are the week&#8217;s five most important stories, and what they mean for a European buyer of physical metal.<\/p>\n<h2>The week&#8217;s biggest stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><strong>The Fed stood pat \u2014 but three voters wanted a hike.<\/strong> On 29 July the Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50\u20133.75%, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favour of a 25-basis-point increase. The market promptly labelled it a &#8220;hawkish hold&#8221;. Gold staged a volatile intraday reversal after the decision, reaching $4,116 before settling just below its 20-day moving average around $4,072. Economists at Natixis put the market-implied odds of a September hike at roughly 60% \u2014 which means the rate question stays unresolved until autumn. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-07-30\/feds-hawkish-hold-stabilizes-gold-and-silver-likely-leaves-markets-limbo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco News, 30.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2 \u2014 62% more than a year ago.<\/strong> The World Gold Council published its second-quarter demand report on 30 July: total demand held flat year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes, but the composition shifted sharply. Central banks added 289 tonnes to reserves while gold-backed ETFs shed 45 tonnes over the quarter and jewellery demand fell 17% by volume. Jewellery value still rose 22% for the half-year, to US$86 billion \u2014 people are buying fewer grams and paying more for each one. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/news-and-events\/press-releases\/gold-market-shows-resilience-price-momentum-cools-q2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Gold Council, 30.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Banks cut their silver price targets \u2014 but not their deficit estimates.<\/strong> JPMorgan trimmed its silver target to $60\u201365 in July and the rest of Wall Street followed, yet not one of them called the shortage over. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute still see the 2026 silver market running a 46.3-million-ounce deficit \u2014 a sixth consecutive year in which the world consumes more silver than it can mine and recycle. The gold-silver ratio sits near 69, historically a high reading. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/opinion\/2026-07-30\/street-cut-its-silver-targets-price-fell-deficit-held\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco, 30.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Hormuz tensions eased \u2014 and gold&#8217;s risk premium came off with them.<\/strong> On 27 July, US and Iranian strikes paused, and Iran confirmed it was talking to Oman about mechanisms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil reacted sharply: Brent dropped from around $100 the previous week to $90.78. Gold rose that day to $4,083 (+0.77%) and silver to $58.74 (+1.21%) \u2014 the market repriced part of the risk premium, not the whole situation. Tanker risk around the strait stayed high enough that bullion kept finding buyers on every dip. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-07-27\/gold-silver-rise-oil-slides-us-iran-pause\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco News, 27.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Inflation cooled, but the dollar and oil ate the rally.<\/strong> June PCE inflation fell 0.1% on the month and eased to 3.7% year-on-year, with core at 3.3%. That is normally good news for gold \u2014 except that on 31 July the dollar index firmed above 101, the 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.7%, and Brent climbed back to $90.12, up roughly 20% over July. Gold ended the session at $4,050.70 (\u22121.27%) and silver at $57.75 (\u22121.93%). For the month as a whole, though, gold still finished about 1.7% higher \u2014 its first monthly gain since the US-Iran conflict began. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-07-31\/gold-silver-retreat-dollar-yields-blunt-post-pce-support-kitco-pm-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco News, 31.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What the market is watching this week<\/h2>\n<p>Kitco&#8217;s weekly survey shows an unusual three-way split: of 17 Wall Street analysts, 29% expect gold to rise, 35% to fall and 35% to trade sideways. Retail sentiment ran warmer \u2014 47% of 184 respondents were bullish. Gold traded between $3,996 and $4,119.82 last week and closed Friday at $4,048.40, with the $4,000 level once again acting as support. Friday&#8217;s July US non-farm payrolls report is the week&#8217;s main event; ahead of it come the ISM manufacturing index, JOLTS, the ADP employment report and the ISM services index. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-07-31\/wall-street-trisected-golds-near-term-prospects-main-street-bulls-minority\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kitco News, 31.07.2026<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Price levels and what they mean for a Baltic buyer<\/h2>\n<p>According to our own market monitoring on the morning of 3 August, a one-ounce gold coin was retailing in Estonia at roughly \u20ac3,640\u20133,740, depending on the coin and on whether it was a current or an earlier-year mintage. One-ounce silver coins ran between about \u20ac61 and \u20ac72, and a one-kilogram silver bar around \u20ac2,219.<\/p>\n<p>In practice, that tells you three things.<\/p>\n<p><strong>First<\/strong>, gold&#8217;s dollar price and a euro buyer&#8217;s purchase price do not move in lockstep, because the EUR\/USD rate sits between them. A stronger dollar \u2014 the very thing pushing gold&#8217;s dollar price down \u2014 usually cushions part of that decline in euro terms, which is why a week that looks negative in dollars often looks flatter in euros.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second<\/strong>, a coin&#8217;s premium over spot grows as the unit gets smaller. If your goal is to accumulate as much metal as possible, larger units cost less per gram \u2014 a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2337\">1 oz Austrian Philharmonic gold coin<\/a>, say, or a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2355\">100 g Argor-Heraeus gold bar<\/a>. Smaller units cost more per gram but are easier to divide and to sell on later.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Third<\/strong>, a gold-silver ratio near 69 means silver is historically cheap relative to gold. That is not a forecast \u2014 it is simply a description of the price relationship between two metals, one that some investors use when rebalancing a portfolio. On the silver side, the best-known choice is the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=2851\">1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf silver coin<\/a>, while the cheapest way in is our <a href=\"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/?p=3335\">1 oz silver coin \u2014 MIX (our choice)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The bigger picture remains two-sided. Central-bank buying and the silver deficit underpin long-term demand, while high interest rates and a firm dollar keep near-term prices under pressure. Anyone buying physical metal for the long haul is far less exposed to a week of chop than someone trying to time the bottom.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Precious metal prices fluctuate. Before making any investment decision, consider your own circumstances and consult a specialist if necessary.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman &amp; Sons editorial team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed held rates at 3.50\u20133.75% despite three dissents, gold closed July up 1.7%, and central banks added 289 tonnes in the second quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3349,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turu-uudised"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3352\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldmansons.ee\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}